Tropical Storm MOLAVE Advisory 12 Αυγ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR
14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED AND EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AN 111654Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
FURTHER ILLUSTRATES THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LLCC AND THE LIMITED
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. AN OLDER ASCAT PASS SHOWED
A MORE SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH WEAK CORE WINDS AND 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS
IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT APPROXIMATELY 40NM FROM THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. DUE TO THE STRONG 20 TO 25 KNOT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) DISPLACING THE CONVECTION APPROXIMATELY 70NM,
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND THEREFORE, ARE NOT
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH THE STORM EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS CREATING THE MODERATE VWS BUT IS ALSO
PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
ABOVE 28 CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND ARE
HELPING SUSTAIN THE CURRENT CONVECTION. TS MOLAVE IS TRACKING WITHIN
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGING.
   B. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF BOTH THE STR TO THE SOUTH AND THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL, SSTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 26 CELSIUS THROUGH
TAU 24 ALLOWING MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 24,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
LEADING TO THE CYCLONE BEGINNING ITS WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 36. TS MOLAVE WILL COMPLETE
ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
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