MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 35// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 108 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND A WELL-DEFINED EYE, ALBEIT CLOUD-FILLED AND SMALLER AT 5-NM DIAMETER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM THE TAIWAN CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU. UPPER- LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. TY SOUDELOR IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY SOUDELOR WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, TY 13W WILL TURN POLEWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE CYCLONE WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN TAIWAN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN EXIT INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT, STILL AT TYPHOON STRENGTH, ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER. HOWEVER, AFTER IT MAKES A FINAL LANDFALL IN CHINA JUST BEFORE TAU 24, IT WILL ERODE RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN