Tropical Storm ONE Advisory 20 Ιουλ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C (HALOLA)
WARNING NR 39//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A
191818Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE PROVIDES CLEAR EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM
IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH IMPROVED BANDING OVER ALL
QUADRANTS, WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A MORE DEFINED CENTER.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SSMIS WIND PRODUCT SHOWS STRONGER WINDS RANGING
FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. RECENT TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A MORE SYMMETRIC, DEEP
MOISTURE SIGNATURE, WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE REVIVED CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED
ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM RJTD, WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL AS ENHANCED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TD 01C IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD HALOLA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR THROUGH
TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS THEN AFTER TAU 24, TD 01C SHOULD BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AT A
FASTER RATE, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS NEAR TAU 72 DUE
TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 75 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, EXPECT A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD
TRACK AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO THE INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THE RE-CURVE. TD HALOLA
SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER SST NEAR 26C. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS LOW DUE PRIMARILY TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE RE-
CURVE PHASE. NEAR TAU 120, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION SOUTH OF JAPAN DUE TO THE WEAK
BAROCLINICITY AND WEAK MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.//
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