Tropical Storm LINFA Advisory 04 Ιουλ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED, BUT WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS SEEN IN A RECENT
021329Z SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETER PASS
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A
SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 031326Z. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE
(20-25 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS BEING OFFSET
BY GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW WITH AN EQUATORWARD ENHANCEMENT, ALLOWING
THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN OVER THE LLCC. TS LINFA IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS 10W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH
TAU 72. EXPECT MODEST STRENGTHENING DUE TO FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AND THE PERSISTENT VWS. TS LINFA WILL RE-EMERGE OVER
WATER NEAR TAU 72 AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS CALLING FOR A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH TO MOVE OVER TS 10W AND BREAK IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO RECURVE TO THE EAST. THE
SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT SITS IN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT EAST OF TAIWAN. IN ADDITION, THE APPROACH OF TS 09W FROM
THE EAST MAY INITIATE A DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI), CAUSING
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TS LINFA TO BECOME MORE COMPLEX. MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72 WITH THE MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE RECURVING THE SYSTEM NORTH. THIS DIVERGENCE, IN ADDITION TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF POTENTIAL DCI WITH TS 09W, LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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