Tropical Storm ONE Advisory 22 Ιουλ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR 47//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
  TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 733 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
THE ONCE APPARENT EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED OVER THE LAST
6 HOURS. THE 211728Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY WRAPPED
SYSTEM WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT VWS WITH GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW. TY 01C IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY ADJUSTED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. TAU 72 AND 96 HAVE BEEN MOVED FURTHER WEST,
SIGNIFICANTLY CLOSING THE CPA TO OKINAWA AND SASEBO.
   B. TY HALOLA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. IT IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS - PEAKING AT 90 KNOTS - DUE TO
CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW
VWS, AND SSTS ABOVE 28 CELSIUS. BEYOND TAU 48, VWS WILL INCREASE
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. TY
HALOLA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO VWS ABOVE 30 KNOTS CAUSED BY
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW FROM A BUILDING MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST, SSTS DROPPING BELOW 26 CELSIUS, THEN LAND INTERACTION WITH
JAPAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO VARYING
DEGREES IN THE TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE. THIS FORECAST HAS AGAIN
SHIFTED FURTHER WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO
VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENT OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. THIS
UNCERTAINTY LEADS TO AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN