Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM Advisory 02 Ιουλ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 582 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEP CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011606Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE
PARTIAL PASS IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH TIGHT CURVED
BANDING JUST EAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND SUPPORTED BY THE
PGTW FIX WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45
KNOTS BASED ON CONCURRING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW
ALOFT. TS 09W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 09W WILL MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 36
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, ALLOWING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND
TAU 36, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE COMPLEX AS TS CHAN-HOM
INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W) MENTIONED IN THE ABPW10
PGTW 010600. THIS INTERACTION WILL CAUSE TS 09W TO SLOW AND MAINTAIN
CURRENT INTENSITY WITH A POTENTIAL WEAKENING PHASE. CONCURRENTLY,
THE STR WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT TO THE EAST AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTH, FORCING TS CHAN-HOM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AGAIN DUE TO FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW VWS.
   C. TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STR AND
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36; HOWEVER, AS THE
TS 09W INTERACTS WITH 94W, THE TRACK GUIDANCE FANS OUT REACHING
150NM AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THE MARIANA ISLANDS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY DURING THE INTERACTION PHASE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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