Tropical Storm NEOGURI Advisory 07 Ιουλ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI)//
WARNING NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 414 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS GREATLY EXPANDED IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS, MOSTLY FEEDING FROM
THE SOUTHERN FLANK, WRAPPED INTO A WELL-DEFINED 25-NM EYE. THE EIR
LOOP ALSO SHOWS THE EYEWALL HAS CONTRACTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS
A SECONDARY OUTER EYEWALL HAS BEGUN TO FORM. THIS DEVELOPMENT -
TYPICAL WITH VERY INTENSE TYPHOONS - IS CAPTURED IN A SERIES OF
MICROWAVE PASSES, INCLUDING A 061656Z GCOM-W1 89 GHZ IMAGE, AS A
BRIGHT CONVECTIVE RING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED
FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 04 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, THE
CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A MESOSCALE POINT SOURCE THAT IS PROVIDING
HIGHLY-EFFICIENT RADIAL VENTILATION. THIS IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STY 08W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 08W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24
BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AS THE STR RECEDES WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. AFTER TAU 36, THE CYCLONE
WILL HAVE CRESTED THE RIDGE AND WILL RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH FURTHER WEAKENS THE STEERING STR. DUE TO VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MENTIONED IN PARA 2, FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 145 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 48, COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), INCREASING VWS AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES, AND LANDFALL INTO KYUSHU, JAPAN, WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, STY NEOGURI WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST, AND
LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DETERIORATION BEFORE BECOMING A
FULL-FLEDGED COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
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