Tropical Storm NEOGURI Advisory 10 Ιουλ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING
NR 28//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 62 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE STRETCHED AS
IT BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE MAIN
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, PARTIALLY EXPOSING A
RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS NOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED WITH THE
CYCLONES IMMERSION INTO THE STRONG WESTERLIES. TS 08W HAS BEGUN TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 08W IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL KYUSHU IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN OVER LAND UNTIL AFTER TAU 24 WHEN IT
EXITS BACK OVER WATER INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SYSTEM WILL
COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24, BECOMING A COLD-CORE
LOW BY TAU 48. LAND INTERACTION, INCREASING VWS, AND COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALL CONTRIBUTE TO ITS RAPID DECAY. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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