MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 28// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 62 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE STRETCHED AS IT BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE MAIN CONVECTION IS DISPLACED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, PARTIALLY EXPOSING A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS NOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED WITH THE CYCLONES IMMERSION INTO THE STRONG WESTERLIES. TS 08W HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 08W IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL KYUSHU IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN OVER LAND UNTIL AFTER TAU 24 WHEN IT EXITS BACK OVER WATER INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24, BECOMING A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 48. LAND INTERACTION, INCREASING VWS, AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALL CONTRIBUTE TO ITS RAPID DECAY. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN