Tropical Storm NEOGURI Advisory 09 Ιουλ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS THE
DOMINANT EYE FEATURE, THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS,
HAS BECOME OBSCURED BY WEAKENING IN THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITIONING IS BASED ON THE
TRACKING OF FEATURES AND POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE
INTENSITY FOR THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY AT 95 KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD ALL SUPPORT THE WEAKENING OBSERVED IN EIR. THE EIR
INDICATES A DRY SLOT IS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL PORTIONS OF TY 08W, IMPACTING THE OUTFLOW AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, THE EIR LOOP
SHOWS A SLIGHT NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ELONGATION IN THE STRUCTURE OF
DEEP CONVECTION, INDICATING INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLY TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TY 08W.
THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
STEERING TY 08W RE-ALIGN BRINGING TY 08W NORTH OF THE AXIS OF THE
STR. CURRENTLY THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (05 TO 10
KNOTS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO TURN SHARPLY EAST TOWARDS KYUSHU, MAKING
LANDFALL AROUND 00Z ON THE 10TH.  AN INCREASED WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED AFTER TAU 12 AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE, VWS
INCREASES FROM GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND
LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS IMPACTED FROM LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN JAPAN. TY 08W
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS KYUSHU AT MINIMAL TYPHOON,
POSSIBLY STRONG TROPICAL STORM, STRENGTH. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED AND CONTINUE TO DEVOLVE AS THE
ROUGH TERRAIN ACROSS JAPAN, ALONG WITH THE WESTERLIES, BEGIN TO
INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TY NEOGURI WILL ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE LOW
OVER NORTHERN JAPAN AND THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY
EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
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