Tropical Storm DOLPHIN Advisory 08 Μάι.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1155
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION ON A
071559Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 07W IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, A ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS PROVIDING
VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS DRIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
      B. TD 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK AND
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO ASSUME STEERING
AND EVENTUALLY REDIRECT THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TAU 36. AS
THE SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH
PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER, SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE TO TYPHOON
INTENSITY BY TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 07W WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. GENERALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE END OF FORECAST. THE JTWC
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE STORM MOTION DURING THE INTIAL PHASE, THERE IS
OVERALL A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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