MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 10// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 541 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS BEGUN TO CURL AS IT FURTHER CONSOLIDATED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 191626Z AMSR-2 IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE IMPROVED WRAP. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH DECREASING VWS AND THE ANTICIPATED OPENING OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE. THESE PLUS THE PERENNIALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES TAIWAN. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY MATMO WILL DRAG ACROSS CENTRAL TAIWAN, INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND FINALLY MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CHINESE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY END OF FORECAST. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE JAPANESE TRACKERS THAT ARE RIGHT OUTLIERS.// NNNN NNNN