Tropical Storm RAMMASUN Advisory 16 Ιουλ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 67 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTENSE COMPACT SYSTEM THAT HAS, FOR THE  MOST PART,
MAINTAINED STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY AS IT DRAGGED ACROSS SOUTHERN LUZON.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A 12-NM EYE
THAT IS VISIBLE BOTH IN THE EIR AND ON A 151741Z 37H GPM MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO
10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN. AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS LUZON
INTO METRO MANILA AND SUBIC BAY, IT WILL WEAKEN BUT WILL STILL EMERGE
AS A STRONG 95-KNOT TYPHOON IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). CONTINUED
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO THE PERENNIALLY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SCS WILL PROMOTE A SECONDARY RAPID
INTENSIFICATION - PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS IT CROSSES
NORTHERN HAINAN, CHINA.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TYPHOON RAMMASUN WILL CROSS THE GULF OF
TONKIN, MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM NEAR HANOI, THEN RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION; HOWEVER, TY 09W WILL MAINTAIN
TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT MAKES THE FINAL LANDFALL. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
NNNN