MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 24// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322 NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS THE DOMINANT EYE FEATURE, THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, HAS BECOME OBSCURED BY WEAKENING IN THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITIONING IS BASED ON THE TRACKING OF FEATURES AND POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INTENSITY FOR THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY AT 95 KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD ALL SUPPORT THE WEAKENING OBSERVED IN EIR. THE EIR INDICATES A DRY SLOT IS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PORTIONS OF TY 08W, IMPACTING THE OUTFLOW AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, THE EIR LOOP SHOWS A SLIGHT NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ELONGATION IN THE STRUCTURE OF DEEP CONVECTION, INDICATING INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLY TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TY 08W. THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) STEERING TY 08W RE-ALIGN BRINGING TY 08W NORTH OF THE AXIS OF THE STR. CURRENTLY THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO TURN SHARPLY EAST TOWARDS KYUSHU, MAKING LANDFALL AROUND 00Z ON THE 10TH. AN INCREASED WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 12 AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE, VWS INCREASES FROM GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS IMPACTED FROM LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN JAPAN. TY 08W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS KYUSHU AT MINIMAL TYPHOON, POSSIBLY STRONG TROPICAL STORM, STRENGTH. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED AND CONTINUE TO DEVOLVE AS THE ROUGH TERRAIN ACROSS JAPAN, ALONG WITH THE WESTERLIES, BEGIN TO INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TY NEOGURI WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE LOW OVER NORTHERN JAPAN AND THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN