MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 12// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 661 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STEADY IMPROVEMENT WITHIN THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE. COLDER CLOUD- TOP TEMPERATURES AND A MORE SYMMETRIC EYE HAS EXPANDED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. POSITIONING IS BASED ON THIS WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE, WITH INTENSITY INCREASING BASED ON THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES ARE IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE OBSERVED IMPROVEMENTS, INDICATING 115 KNOTS, BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN OBSERVED CONVEC- TION DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS SUPPORTING THE VIGOROUS LEVELS OF OUTFLOW AS TY 08W TRACKS OVER VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), 30 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS AT LOW VALUES 05 TO 10 KNOTS AS TY 08W TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, BUT WILL BEGIN TURNING NORTHWARD BEYOND THIS POINT AS THE STR BEGINS TO RE-ALIGN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SERIES OF TRANS- ITORY MID-LATITUDE LOWS, ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE KOREAN PENIN- SULA AND ANOTHER BUILDING LOW OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF JAPAN. BY TAU 48, TY 08W WILL CREST THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY TAU 72. TY 08W WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SSTS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BEYOND TAU 48, SSTS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE STRUCTURE OF TY 08W. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 08W WILL GRADUALLY RECURVE AND TRACK NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KYUSHU, JAPAN AS THE STR BEGINS TO SEE INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID-LATITUDE LOWS. THE INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST VALUES, AND THE START OF LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DETERIORATION. HOWEVER, TY 08W WILL REMAIN AN INTENSE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN JAPAN. AROUND TAU 96, TY NEOGURI WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS AT THE RECURVE POINT. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN