Tropical Storm ONE Advisory 25 Ιουλ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR 59//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SLOWLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, A
241610Z GCOM 89 GHZ IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-ORGANIZED LLCC
WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, PARTIAL EYEWALL AND TIGHTLY-
CURVED, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. BASED ON RADAR
FIXES AND THE GCOM IMAGE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND TRACK MOTION. TY 01C IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 40 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MINAMIDAITO ISLAND, WHICH IS REPORTING 40 TO 45
KNOT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE WINDS AND SLP NEAR 987 MB. THE
24/12Z MINAMIDAITO SOUNDING SUPPORTS THE TYPHOON STRENGTH ASSESSMENT
AND SHOWS AN EASTERLY WIND OF 64 KNOTS AT 925 MB. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A
BROAD TUTT CELL NEAR GUAM. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO DIRECT EVIDENCE OF
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, RECENT SOUNDINGS FROM NAZE SHOW DRY AIR THROUGH
THE COLUMN, WHICH (ALONG WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR) APPEARS
TO HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY, THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A SHRINKING DEEP MOISTURE ENVELOPE
WITH DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AND
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 77 KNOTS. TY
01C HAS CLEARLY STARTED TURNING NORTHWESTWARD BASED ON THE RADAR
MIXES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 24/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
WEAKENING STR TO THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN CHINA, THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY HALOLA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 12, TY HALOLA WILL REACH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE STEERING STR AND BEGIN TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY.
AFTERWARDS, TY 01C WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND START TO ACCELERATE
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS THE TYPHOON'S CENTER PASSES
THROUGH THE RYUKYU ISLANDS WITH A 50NM SPREAD. THE JTWC TRACK IS
POSITIONED AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE FORECASTED
CONTINUED WEAKENING AND WEAKENING STR. TY 01C WILL FURTHER WEAKEN
THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. BEYOND
TAU 48, TY HALOLA WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. TY 01C WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG
VWS, COLD SSTS (23C TO 22C) AND CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION. TY 01C
IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS NO BAROCLINIC SUPPORT FOR EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TY HALOLA ROUNDS THE STR;
HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW WITHIN 90NM AT TAU 48 AND BETTER
AGREEMENT BEYOND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE
IMPROVED MODEL GROUPING, THERE REMAINS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE AND, THEREFORE, IN THE OVERALL TRACK
FORECAST.//
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