Tropical Storm NOUL Advisory 05 Μάι.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 77 NM EAST
OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SLIGHTLY
DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. BOTH 041632Z NOAA-19 AND 041528Z GCOMW MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEAL TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE AND PGTW SATELLITE FIX WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS NOUL IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 06W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE
CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR IS
FORECASTED TO BUILD AND REORIENT, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE
AND SHIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING TS 06W TO STEADILY
INTENSITY. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD INDICATING A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER OR SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF YAP. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR
PERHAPS INTENSIFY FURTHER AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
GENERALLY FAVORABLE.  MODEL TRACK FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE, BUT HAVE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH GFS
AND NAVGEM TRACKERS COMING CLOSER.  DUE TO CURRENT MODEL SPREAD AND
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INTENSITY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, JTWC
FORECAST OVERALL CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
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