Tropical Storm MUJIGAE Advisory 04 Οκτ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (MUJIGAE) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 22W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM EAST OF
HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED AS DEEPENED CONVECTIVE BANDS
TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO A 19-NM DIAMETER EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE ON THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS RAISED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE AND AN INCREASE IN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES (RANGING
FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 22W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL POINT-SOURCE. MUJIGAE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY MUJIGAE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES
SOUTHERN CHINA. MUJIGAE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION
AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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