Tropical Storm SAOLA Advisory 23 Οκτ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
313 NM SOUTHEAST OF HAGATNA, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. EIR LOW CLOUD (3.9 MICRON) IMAGERY CLEARLY
SHOWS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER, WHICH
PROVIDES GOOD EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOW TRACKING WESTWARD
AFTER A PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION. A 221810Z SSMIS 91GHZ
COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH
DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE CENTER, WHICH
IS POSITIONED JUST EAST OF AN AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASING (15
TO 20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. RECENT SOUNDINGS FROM GUAM AND 700MB MODEL
ANALYSES HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A WEAKENING NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE AND A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST, WHICH IS PROVIDING A WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. AFTER TAU 18 TO 24, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPROVE LEADING TO A PERIOD OF SLOW INTENSIFICATION / CONSOLIDATION.
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOLUTIONS ACCELERATING TD
27W WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY
RECURVES 25W OVER IWO-TO, DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
A 180NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 27W IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE
POLEWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. IMPROVED POLEWARD VENTILATION
WILL ALLOW TD 27W TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY
TAU 120. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE
TO THE LARGE SPREAD (550NM) IN SOLUTIONS (EXCLUDES NAVGEM) AT TAU
120. AFTER TAU 120, STRONG ZONAL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
OVER JAPAN MAKING LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND JAPAN EXTREMELY UNLIKELY.//
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