Tropical Storm LAN Advisory 16 Οκτ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 107
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION GRADUALLY ORGANIZING AROUND A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED UPON THE 151719Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS, CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15
KNOTS), WITH MODERATE OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA ARE WARM (30 DEGREES C). THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN THE SHORT
TERM. AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AS THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) RE-ORIENTS TOWARD THE
EAST. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND ALLOW FOR
STEADY INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 72, TD 25W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A 95
KNOT SYSTEM.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 25W WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRACK UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. GIVEN WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH
AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF
THE TURN IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. UNTIL TD 25W BECOMES MORE
ORGANIZED, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
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