Tropical Storm KROSA Advisory 14 Αυγ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED, FLARING
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LARGE, RAGGED AND FULLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON EIR
IMAGERY AND A 131624Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BETWEEN THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND T3.5 (55 KTS), AND BELOW A
131105Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE LLC
WHICH IS INHIBITING CENTRAL CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) REMAIN CONDUCIVE (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS). THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, TS 11W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT
TRACK AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR.
NEAR TAU 36, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST,
ERODING THE STR AND ALLOWING TS 11W TO RECURVE POLEWARD AROUND THE
STR AXIS, SKIRTING WESTERN SHIKOKU JUST AFTER TAU 30. INCREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL ENABLE A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 12.  LAND
INTERACTION, UNFAVORABLE (20?30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND
COOLER SST (22-25 DEGREES CELSIUS) IN THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ) WILL
COMBINE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY DOWN TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS
IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOJ. CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD, WITH A
SPREAD OF 260 NM AT TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS IN OVERALL
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TS 11W WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL AS IT APPROACHES
THE WATERS WEST OF HOKKAIDO NEAR TAU 72. THERE IS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.//
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