Tropical Storm FRANCISCO Advisory 07 Αυγ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 102 NM
NORTH OF PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 061715Z ATMS 88.2GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED NORTH OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEFINED LLCC WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE THE RCTP/RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TS
09W IS LOCATED UNDER THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IS UNDER SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED
IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND
COOLER SST. TS 09W SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS BUT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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