Tropical Storm MUN Advisory 04 Ιουλ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (MUN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 83 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO STRONG (25
TO 40 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY (SPECIFICALLY, THE 031812Z AMSR2 36GHZ AND 031104Z WINDSAT
37GHZ IMAGES) AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BACH LONG VI (48839)
PROVIDE EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT TRACKED AWAY FROM HAINAN ISLAND WITH IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL BANDING AND STRUCTURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SEMICIRCLES. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM REMAINS BROAD, RECENT ASCAT DATA
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35-50NM,
WHICH IS TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE 031812Z AMSR2 IMAGE
AND MULTIPLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TS 05W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS INLAND, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. TS MUN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT
SIX HOURS WITH RAPID WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
AND PERSISTENT STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM BY TAU 24.//
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