Tropical Storm MEGI Advisory 26 Σεπ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MEGI) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
  TYPHOON 20W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM SOUTH OF KADENA
AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHT SPIRAL
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 10
NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE FORMED BRIEFLY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, WHICH
WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN A 252239Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE GIVING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 90 KTS, AND IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM, TAPPING INTO THE
WESTERLY MID-LATITUDE JET TO THE NORTH AND A LARGE TUTT CELL TO THE
EAST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND SSTS ARE
ALSO FAVORABLE, NEAR 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TY MEGI IS TRACKING
NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. TY MEGI WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWESTERN TRACK ALONG THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 24
REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. RAPID WEAKENING WILL ENSUE FOLLOWING LANDFALL OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF CENTRAL TAIWAN AROUND TAU 36. TY MEGI IS
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER WATER OFF THE WESTERN SHORE OF TAIWAN
REORGANIZING AS A TROPICAL STORM, THEN MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN OVER
CHINA NEAR TAU 54. RAPID DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED AS TY MEGI TRACKS
FURTHER INLAND FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK
LOCATION AND SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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Τροχιές καταιγίδων 26 Σεπ.

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