Tropical Storm NANGKA Advisory 04 Ιουλ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (NANGKA)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVERHEAD. A 031835Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 18Z
PGTW FIX POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KTS BASED
ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 5-15 KTS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW AS THE TROUGH LIFTS FROM THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. TD 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 11W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. TRACK SPEEDS ARE
FORECASTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND 12 KTS. STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED ALONG TRACK DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS WARM SSTS AND POSITIVE OHC VALUES. AFTER TAU
48 TD 11W IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD AND BEGIN
TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SMALL
COMPACT SYSTEM THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
   C. TD 11W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 120. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 85 KTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE DYNAMIC PATTERN CURRENTLY
OBSERVED IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC, CLOSE ATTENTION SHOULD ALSO BE PAID
TO THE EVOLUTION OF TS 09W AND INVEST 98W.//
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